2011-11-24: 2011 NFL Season Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving!
I apologize for posting these a little late but I have been cooking food for the past three days. When I was not cooking I was reading papers about modifications to Support Vector Models to get some ideas to improve the accuracy of our predictions.
Adapting Ranking SVM to Document Retrieval concentrated on a modification of the hinge loss function when training the model to increase accuracy. Training a Support Vector Machine in the Primal points out that much literature jumps right to the dual optimization aspect of SVMs and does not pay enough attention to the primal problem. A portion of the paper mentions replacing the hinge loss function with one that is differentiable such as the Huber loss function.
While experimenting with SVM training I observed an interesting data point. Using NFL statistics from 2002 to 2010, one of the training methods assigned the following weights to the teams.
Well it is time for me to break out the whipping cream and make some homemade whip cream for the pies I baked the other day. Here are the picks for this week.
-- Greg Szalkowski
I apologize for posting these a little late but I have been cooking food for the past three days. When I was not cooking I was reading papers about modifications to Support Vector Models to get some ideas to improve the accuracy of our predictions.
Adapting Ranking SVM to Document Retrieval concentrated on a modification of the hinge loss function when training the model to increase accuracy. Training a Support Vector Machine in the Primal points out that much literature jumps right to the dual optimization aspect of SVMs and does not pay enough attention to the primal problem. A portion of the paper mentions replacing the hinge loss function with one that is differentiable such as the Huber loss function.
While experimenting with SVM training I observed an interesting data point. Using NFL statistics from 2002 to 2010, one of the training methods assigned the following weights to the teams.
| 1.1276 | Indianapolis Colts | |
| 1.1055 | New England Patriots | |
| 0.5704 | Philadelphia Eagles | |
| 0.4269 | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| 0.3317 | Tennessee Titans | |
| 0.3184 | San Diego Chargers | |
| 0.2922 | Baltimore Ravens | |
| 0.2248 | New Orleans Saints | |
| 0.1976 | Green Bay Packers | |
| 0.1718 | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| 0.1621 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 0.0957 | Carolina Panthers | |
| 0.0946 | Atlanta Falcons | |
| 0.0877 | New York Jets | |
| 0.0704 | Chicago Bears | |
| 0.0504 | New York Giants | |
| -0.0569 | Dallas Cowboys | |
| -0.0689 | Buffalo Bills | |
| -0.0740 | Miami Dolphins | |
| -0.0812 | Houston Texans | |
| -0.1085 | Denver Broncos | |
| -0.1752 | Cincinnati Bengals | |
| -0.2420 | Kansas City Chiefs | |
| -0.3457 | Cleveland Browns | |
| -0.3631 | Minnesota Vikings | |
| -0.3634 | Seattle Seahawks | |
| -0.4150 | Arizona Cardinals | |
| -0.5037 | St. Louis Rams | |
| -0.5121 | Oakland Raiders | |
| -0.5633 | Washington Redskins | |
| -0.6925 | San Francisco 49ers | |
| -0.7623 | Detroit Lions |
Well it is time for me to break out the whipping cream and make some homemade whip cream for the pies I baked the other day. Here are the picks for this week.
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Discrete | Pagerank |
| GB | 6 | at DET | GB | GB |
| at DAL | 8 | MIA | DAL | DAL |
| at BAL | 3 | SF | BAL | BAL |
| at STL | 5 | ARI | STL | STL |
| at NYJ | 1 | BUF | NYJ | BUF |
| at CIN | 8 | CLE | CIN | CIN |
| HOU | 4 | at JAX | HOU | HOU |
| CAR | 7 | at IND | CAR | IND |
| at TEN | 20 | TB | TEN | TEN |
| at ATL | 11 | MIN | ATL | ATL |
| at OAK | 6 | CHI | OAK | CHI |
| at SEA | 5 | WAS | SEA | SEA |
| NE | 6 | at PHI | NE | PHI |
| at SD | 6 | DEN | SD | DEN |
| PIT | 11 | at KC | PIT | PIT |
| at NO | 3 | NYG | NO | NO |
-- Greg Szalkowski
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